So, that leads to me to the question of this post. What is a good strategy. The strategy in the last post was profitable. Over a span of 5years, it yielded 11%. On an annualized basis, its gave 2.21 % per year. It is definitely not fantastic, but is better than your bank.
Notice that the win rate for that strategy was 40.48 %. I could think of this number as probability of being successful in my next trade. Another way to state this is : I made a profit of 19.27% for 40.48% of my trades and I took a loss of 9.16% for 59.25% of my trades. This gives me an average profit of 2.35% / trades. An average trade was 127 bars long (~ 3 months).
The goal of a good strategy is to get the best returns with the smallest risk. So, a desirable strategy would have :
- A high average profit number
- A high win rate
- A low average barsHeld number (trade length)